The Green Bay Packers head to Denver this week to take on the Denver Broncos, the current No. 1 seed in the AFC who are riding a 10-game winning streak.
Denver’s defense is the star of the show, but their offense will still pose an interesting test for Green Bay, one not too different from the one they just faced in Chicago.
In the overall statistics, the Broncos offense, called by Sean Payton, is around the middle of the pack, ranking 15th in points per game, 20th in yards per play, 12th in non-garbage-time EPA per play and 19th in success rate.
Like the Bears though, the Broncos, led by second-year quarterback Bo Nix, is not turning the ball over much. In fact, their drives end in a turnover at the seventh lowest rate in the league.
They also have a knack of coming to life on third down and late in the game, much like Chicago.
Denver ranks 13th in EPA per play and 22nd in success rate on early downs but jumps to eighth and 13th respectively on late downs. Getting off the field on the money downs is something Green Bay’s defense has struggled with a bit this year, ranking 20th in EPA on late downs defensively.
Caleb Williams was able to come up with some magic to extend drives plenty of times last week, and there is a chance this could turn into a similarly frustrating game on defense for Jeff Hafley’s crew on Sunday.
The Broncos have also mounted their share of comebacks this season, ranking sixth in fourth quarter EPA. Conversely, the Packers only rank 25th in EPA defensively in the final 15 minutes of games.
Nix is a solid quarterback, and perhaps the best word for him is “safe.” He is accurate, ranking 10th in the league in adjusted completion percentage, and does not make many mistakes, sitting 11th in turnover-worthy play rate.
He does not take many risks though, ranking 18th in big time throw rate, 28th in average depth of target, and throwing behind the line of scrimmage at the 9th highest rate in the NFL. To that end, the Broncos are fourth in screen rate on the year.
If he has a true weakness, it is how he plays when the pocket gets dirty. Nix is PFFs 33rd ranked quarterback out of 44 qualifiers when under pressure this year.
Helping combat this problem is the fact he has been under pressure at the third lowest rate due to Denver’s excellent O-line. Nix is also a pretty mobile QB and is second in pressure-to-sack rate, showing his ability to escape compromised situations.
Coming out of Sunday’s game, Nix is unlikely to be the storyline in terms of why the Broncos won or lost.
Much like Chicago, the real strength of Denver’s offense is their offensive line, which gives them a high floor week to week. The Broncos are PFF’s highest graded pass blocking unit on the year and their ninth highest graded run blocking unit.
In particular, Garrett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey at left and right tackle respectively are very stout, as is Quinn Meinerz at right guard.
They have set the table for a run game which sits fifth in the NFL in explosive run rate, although the Broncos might meet a capable opponent in that regard this week.
The Packers for their part are allowing explosive runs at the sixth lowest rate, and losing J.K. Dobbins has hurt Denver’s run game, as first-year back R.J. Harvey is a very dynamic player but does not provide the same efficiency down to down.
Dobbins was averaging 5.0 yards per carry before going down, while Harvey is at just 3.9. The rookie does rank 14th in breakaway rate though, and is useful out of the backfield, sitting ninth in yards per route run among running backs. His speed in the open field is a real threat.
Due to Denver’s frequent use of screens, of which Harvey is often the participant, secure tackling will again come into focus for Green Bay, and this is something Hafley’s defense has generally done well in 2025, including last week, when they allowed a long run of just nine yards.
Likely due to their strong offensive line, the Broncos have not needed to rely on heavier packages to run the ball efficiently, ranking sixth in the league in EPA per rush out of 11 personnel. However, the Packers are allowing the fifth lowest EPA per rush from 11.
At the pass catching positions, the Broncos are not blessed with a deep group of difference makers, but Courtland Sutton has been one of the more underrated receivers in the league for many years.
He is Denver’s answer against man coverage as a big-bodied receiver capable of winning at the catch point. Sutton ranks eighth in PFF grade versus man this year.
Elsewhere, rookie Pat Bryant has seen his role grow and has been getting a fair amount of work as a big slot receiver, but did not practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury and Broncos reporter Benjamin Allbright reported Bryant is set to miss Sunday’s game.
This will be a fascinating matchup, and for the Broncos it may come down to how well they can run the ball on early downs. The Bears looked pretty futile in the first half last week when they could not get the ground game going, but were hard to stop in the second half after finding a groove.
Green Bay’s young defensive line will need to produce a better performance than last week to stop that from happening, although facing Harvey’s boom/bust style may suit the Packers.
They have done well at limiting explosive runs, and Harvey may not have the vision and patience to just take a solid gain up the middle consistently.
The Packers look to have the advantage down to down, where they are very fundamentally sound, compared to a Broncos offense which is more volatile than consistent.
But getting Denver into 3rd-and-long will only be half the battle, and it will be tough to finish them off due to their penchant for late-game heroics. This will need to be another 60 minutes of disciplined football from Hafley’s defense.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Broncos offense scouting report: Packers run defense must bounce back
