NFL divisional round betting, odds, lines: 5 biggest storylines, including favorite changing in Bills-Broncos

Broncos become favorites

The week began with the betting market liking the Buffalo Bills to pick up another road playoff win. They were a small 1-point favorite at the Denver Broncos. That changed.

By Tuesday morning, the favorite had flipped. The Broncos are now a 1-point favorite at BetMGM. That could change again before kickoff. The Bills have been a popular pick to go deep in the playoffs due to having Josh Allen, the best quarterback remaining in the field. Later in the week, when more casual bettors get involved, the Bills could get more action.

The Bills are in a tough spot though. The Broncos coming off a bye as the No. 1 seed and the Bills playing on short rest, getting the Saturday game after beating Jacksonville this past Sunday. Denver also has a big home-field advantage due to the altitude. That’s why they got betting action early in the week.

The Bills have been favored in all but two games: Week 9 vs. the Chiefs and last week against the Jaguars. The Bills won both of those games straight up.

Seahawks are a big favorite

The 49ers got unnecessarily stuck with short rest. Instead of the NFL having the Bears and Rams, who both won Saturday, play on Saturday in the divisional round, the league put that game on Sunday. That meant the 49ers, who played on Sunday in the eastern time zone, have to play on a short turnaround against a Seahawks team that had the bye.

The line reflects that and also another key 49ers injury, this one to George Kittle. The Seahawks are a 7.5-point favorite. That line moved above a touchdown; it opened at Seattle -6.5. The Seahawks just beat the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18, and that dominant win is reflected in this week’s point spread. The Seahawks were 2.5-point favorites in that game on the road, so it’s not totally surprising to see the line for a game in Seattle be about a touchdown.

Texans a small underdog

The question for the Houston Texans’ game at the New England Patriots was whether the Patriots would be favored by a field goal or more. They were not. The Texans are a 2.5-point favorite, even with receiver Nico Collins’ status in the air after suffering a concussion on Monday night. Given that it’s his second concussion of the season and the Texans have one less day of rest than normal, it seems unlikely Collins will play.

The reason the Texans are getting less than a field goal is obvious. Their defense is fantastic. It has led the team to 10 straight wins, including Monday night at Pittsburgh. The total is 40.5, and that seems a bit high for any Texans game.

Bears getting more than a field goal

The Bears have lived on the edge most of the season, but keep pulling out wins. Their ability to win close games hasn’t affected the point spread for this week.

The Rams are a 3.5-point road favorite at Chicago. That line has moved a couple of times, from 4.5 to 4 and now close to a field goal. The Rams have been viewed as one of the best teams in the NFL this season, but they barely beat the Panthers last week. That, and the Bears continuing to pick up wins in dramatic ways, has more action going Chicago’s way early in the week.

NFC West teams still atop Super Bowl odds

The Seahawks are the favorites to win Super Bowl LX, but it’s close. They’re +300 to win it all, and the Rams are right behind them at +320. Even though the Bills won’t play another home game this season, and aren’t currently favored to win this week, they’re the AFC team with the shortest Super Bowl odds at +550.