Fantasy Football: DFS lineup targets and fades for the NFL divisional round

The regular fantasy football season is over, but we can still gave fun playing Yahoo DFS in the divisional round of the playoffs. Here is a traffic cop report for the four games — note some matchups do not have a yellow or red light designation because one wasn’t warranted.

[Join a DFS contest for the divisional round]

Bills at Broncos

Green Light

QB Josh Allen ($40): He was able to solve this defense in the playoffs last year (135.4 rating), and Allen’s rushing production is just about automatic every week. Allen isn’t going to repeat his MVP of 2024, but he’s still the best player alive in the playoffs.

RB RJ Harvey ($22): The Broncos leaned into Harvey down the stretch, giving him 35 touches the last two games. The Buffalo run defense has been leaky all season, and Harvey was a consistent touchdown scorer all season, even before his role was upgraded.

Yellow Light

WR Brandin Cooks ($13): Injuries have forced the Bills to play Cooks more than expected, and he was helpful in the comeback at Jacksonville (3-58-0, five targets). Cooks has a reasonable chance to draw 7-9 opportunities at Denver.

49ers at Seahawks

Green Light

RB Zach Charbonnet ($24): He’s $4 more expensive than running mate Kenneth Walker III, but perhaps the upgrade is merited. Charbonnet has a lower YPC than Walker but a higher success rate, and Charbonnet also gets more goal-line work, scoring 12 touchdowns to Walker’s five. No matter which back you lean into, take heart that they both looked good in the Week 18 victory over the 49ers.

Yellow Light

RB Christian McCaffrey ($40): The rushing efficiency has tanked and we can’t unsee how poorly the Niners played against Seattle two weeks ago. But McCaffrey probably has six or more receptions already in his back pocket, and double-digit catches could be in play if the 49ers fall behind.

TE A.J. Barner ($10): If your roster build requires a punt play somewhere, Barner might make sense. He found a way to score seven touchdowns in 2025 and gets the occasional carry as a short-yardage specialist. The Niners lost track of Dallas Goedert a few times last week, twice for touchdowns.

Red Light

QB Brock Purdy ($29): While we admire Purdy’s talent and always respect offensive designer Kyle Shanahan, we can’t forget that the Niners managed just 173 yards against this defense just two weeks back, and now they have to play without alpha TE George Kittle.

Texans at Patriots

Green Light

RB Rhamondre Stevenson ($21): He’s just one dollar more than TreVeyon Henderson, and both backs should get double-digit opportunities here. But note that Stevenson has turned into the team’s pass-catching back; over the past five games, Stevenson has been busy through the air (15-206-2) while Henderson has been an afterthought (4-31-0).

Yellow Light

RB Woody Marks ($19): He compiled his best tape of the year in the win over the Chargers, but the Patriots are much harder to run on when run-stuffing lineman Milton Williams is in the lineup. Marks should be looking at 15-18 opportunities — the Texans don’t want to force C.J. Stroud into a proactive passing game — but his efficiency will probably drop this week.

QB Drake Maye ($32): His efficiency stats have been outstanding all year and Maye also contributes handy production as a runner. But the Houston offense is unlikely to force a high-scoring game, and we also have to respect the formidable Texans defense. It’s plausible Maye will throw 30 passes or fewer on Sunday.

TE Dalton Schultz ($15): If star WR Nico Collins sits as expected — he’s in concussion protocol — Schultz has a reasonable path to be Houston’t busiest target. I expect he’ll chase past 50 receiving yards without much trouble, and has about a 35% chance at a touchdown. Those might sound like modest expectations, but they play at tight end.

Red Light

QB C.J. Stroud ($22): You might be temped to play the value game at QB for Sunday’s slate, but Stroud’s ceiling looks modest, especially if Collins can’t go. Josh Allen is the only quarterback who’s thrown for multiple touchdowns on the Patriots since Week 11.

Rams at Bears

Green Light

QB Matthew Stafford ($35): He’s the most expensive quarterback on the Sunday slate, though he’s only $3 higher than Drake Maye and $4 higher than Caleb Williams. The Bears have the worst pass defense remaining in the playoffs, and Stafford was the runaway leader in touchdown passes (12 ahead of the field) and passing yards.

WR Davante Adams ($26): Obviously Puka Nacua is a god, but his salaray is priced as such at $38. Adams might hold a little more touchdown equity and comes at a $12 discount. The Rams employ one of the tightest passing trees in the league — 31 of Stafford’s 42 targets last week went to Nacua and Adams.

TE Colston Loveland ($20): You have to pay expectant salaries now, but Loveland has earned that right, going ballistic over the last three games (24-320-2). The Bears have steered 38 targets to Loveland over this period, and the Los Angeles seam coverage has been average all year.

Red Light

WR Luther Burden III ($15): Although he collected seven targets in the dramatic comeback win over Green Bay, he didn’t do much with the opportunity (3-42-0). Burden is still making rookie mistakes — there were some crossed signals last week — and as much as he’s flashed at times this year, he’s still stuck on just two touchdowns for the season.

TE Colby Parkinson ($18): He’s been one of my favorite sleepers in recent weeks, but he’s no longer priced as an overlooked player. The Rams are getting healthier at tight end, which means it should be a platoon come Sunday night. Parkinson holds touchdown equity, but he’s working with a capped target ceiling.

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