Getting the top seed in each conference is a big edge, clearly.
In the 14-team format, only one team from each conference gets wild-card weekend off. The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks both held serve at home in the divisional round, and having both played on Saturday, also get one more day of rest than their opponents for the conference championship games. And in the Seahawks’ case, they face a Rams team that went to overtime in the cold on Sunday night to beat the Bears and advance.
The stadiums in Denver and Seattle will be rocking for what project as two great matchups with spots in Super Bowl LX on the line.
AFC championship game
(2) New England Patriots at (1) Denver Broncos (3 p.m. ET, CBS)
Why the Patriots can win
The Patriots don’t have a glaring weakness. Perhaps they don’t have great pass-catchers, but quarterback Drake Maye has covered that up. New England finished eighth in yards allowed and third in yards gained. In the playoffs, the Patriots’ defense has gotten even better, shutting down the Chargers in the wild-card round and flustering C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense into five turnovers in a divisional round win. Mike Vrabel is the favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year, which would be the second time he has won that award. The Patriots went 14-3 and it wasn’t just due to the schedule, which was admittedly easy. They have a quarterback in the MVP conversation, a fantastic coach, and upgraded the talent on both sides of the ball with a great offseason. The Patriots have won 14 of their last 15 games, counting playoffs. Even if New England wasn’t expected to arrive as one of the NFL’s best teams this season already, they’re in the final four for a reason.
Why the Broncos can win
The lead-up to the AFC championship game will be all about Jarrett Stidham taking over for Bo Nix, who broke a bone in his ankle late in Denver’s divisional round win and is done for the rest of the season. But while Nix had a good season, this isn’t a team that revolves around the quarterback. The Broncos’ defense, which forced five turnovers against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, is the focal point. The Broncos rush the quarterback at an elite level. They led the NFL with 68 sacks in the regular season. They also are deep at cornerback. They can keep the game low-scoring and perhaps create a few big plays off turnovers to help the offense. The Broncos will have to play differently than they have all season. They will need to run the ball well, which hasn’t been easy for them this season. They had just 70 rushing yards on 22 attempts against the Bills. If the run game is effective and the defense plays at the level it was at most of the season, the Broncos will be in the game at the end. That’s all they can ask for.
Who has the juice going in
It’s hard to say it’s the team that found out its quarterback was done for the season not long after winning in the divisional round. Sean Payton is a good coach, and while there will be an immediate emotional letdown over losing Bo Nix to ankle surgery, by Sunday he’ll have the Broncos ready to rally around Stidham and be thinking about pulling off an upset. Still, they will know the odds are against them. It’s hard to come up with a much more lopsided quarterback comparison in a playoff game than Stidham, who has four career starts and hasn’t thrown a pass the last two regular seasons, against Drake Maye, who has a great case to be the NFL’s MVP this season. The Patriots couldn’t have expected to catch the break of facing a backup quarterback when the divisional round started, but it made the road to the Super Bowl undeniably easier. Suddenly, the Patriots should feel very confident about making their first Super Bowl since Tom Brady was their quarterback.
NFC championship game
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (1) Seattle Seahawks (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Why the Rams can win
The Rams were a miraculous comeback by Seattle in Week 16, highlighted by a controversial two-point conversion, from sweeping the Seahawks in the regular season. In the first meeting, they forced Sam Darnold into his worst game of the season, with four interceptions (he didn’t throw more than two in any other game), and in the rematch they were hassling Darnold again until a Rashid Shaheed punt return got the Seahawks going and Darnold made big plays down the stretch. In that Week 16 game, Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns, one of the few huge performances against the Seahawks’ defense all season. The Rams survived a tight game against the Bears in the divisional round, pulling it out in overtime, and now they face a team that they beat once and came within a historic comeback from beating a second time. No argument needs to be made for why the Rams can win; they already beat Seattle once and outplayed them in the second meeting only to be crushed by one of the greatest rallies in Seahawks history.
Why the Seahawks can win
Seattle was a good team all season, but it also seems like the Seahawks have reached another level recently. Since a ridiculous comeback in Week 16 to beat the Rams, they dominated the Panthers in a 27-10 win, then beat the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18 and 41-6 in the divisional round. That’s four straight wins over playoff teams. In the last three games, a dominant defense has given up 139, 173 and 236 yards. If the defense is going to be that good, it doesn’t matter quite as much that Sam Darnold isn’t 100%. Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury, but he played pretty well through it on Saturday. He also wasn’t asked to do much, with 124 yards on just 17 attempts. The running game was also very good, with 175 yards on 5.3 yards per attempt. The Seahawks will face a tougher challenge in the NFC championship game, especially considering how well the Rams moved the ball against them late in the season, and Darnold will need to play well. The Seahawks will very likely need him to throw more than 17 times in the NFC title game. How Darnold plays will be a big question.
Who has the juice going in
What’s better for momentum, securing a blowout in your playoff opener or surviving two intense games, winning one in the final minute and the other in overtime? The Seahawks blasted the 49ers in the divisional round, running away with a 41-6 win after Shaheed’s kickoff return touchdown to start the game. Given how well the Seahawks have played all season, and especially the past three weeks, they’ll be extremely confident. Home-field advantage only adds to that. The Rams have come close to being eliminated twice but scored in the final minute to beat the Panthers and then overcoming Caleb Williams’ heroics to pull off an overtime win in the divisional round. Each team has plenty of juice coming into the NFC championship game even if they’ve come by it in different ways. This is the showdown, between two teams that practically everyone has agreed were the best in the NFL this season, that everyone has been anticipating.
