The Florida Gators (14-5, 5-1) dropped one spot to No. 10 in the KenPom College Basketball Ratings after defeating the LSU Tigers, 79-61, on Tuesday.
What’s interesting about this update is that the Gators’ adjusted efficiency margin increased by 0.41 points to a plus-29.96 net rating following Tuesday’s win. Dropping a spot after an 18-point win against a Quadrant 2 opponent is out of the norm, but Michigan State’s jump to a plus-30.03 net rating explains it. Florida started the season ranked No. 2 by KenPom, but the non-conference schedule proved difficult with losses to No. 2 Arizona, No. 3 Duke and No. 11 UConn.
Florida’s offense (125.3) took a small dip, dropping 0.2 points per 100 possessions, but remains the 11th-most efficient offense in the country. The defense also held steady at No. 11 in the nation, thanks to a low-scoring day by LSU.
The margin between Florida and Michigan State is razor-thin with a 0.07 difference in net rating. Florida can also easily catch No. 8 Illinois, which is just 0.53 points ahead. No. 11 Connecticut (+28.86) would need a significant improvement to move back into the top 10.
Breaking down more KenPom ratings
| Date | Nov. 30 | Dec. 10 | Dec. 27 | Dec. 31 | Jan. 15 | Jan. 19 | Jan. 22 |
| W-L | 5-2 | 5-4 | 8-4 | 9-4 | 12-5 | 13-5 | 14-5 |
| NetRtg | +25.70 | +26.55 (15) | +26.87 (12) | +26.47 (13) | +28.97 (10) | +29.55 (9) | +29.96 (10) |
| ORtg | 120.1 (24) | 120.4 (23) | 121.2 (24) | 120.8 (27) | 122.6 (19) | 125.5 (11) | 125.3 (11) |
| DRtg | 94.4 (10) | 93.8 (11) | 94.3 (11) | 94.3 (10) | 93.6 (9) | 96.0 (11) | 95.4 (11) |
| AdjT | 72.9 (22) | 71.5 (43) | 71.3 (64) | 71.4 (61) | 70.6 (57) | 70.4 (58) | 70.3 (59) |
| Luck | -.055 (278) | -.159 (362) | -.118 (351) | -.110 (348) | -.112 (357) | -0.90 (341) | -0.87 (337) |
| SOS Net | +7.83 (35) | +14.26 (3) | +8.33 (25) | +6.32 (32) | +10.82 (5) | +12.390 (3) | +12.21 (4) |
| SOS ORtg | 111.3 (50) | 114.8 (5) | 113.1 (27) | 112.2 (31) | 115.7 (4) | 117.8 (2) | 117.4 (4) |
| SOS DRtg | 103.5 (33) | 100.5 (2) | 104.7 (24) | 105.9 (50) | 104.9 (11) | 105.5 (8) | 105.2 (8) |
| NCSOS Net | +7.83 (35) | +14.26 (3) | +8.33 (27) | +6.32 (44) | +6.92 (38) | +6.89 (41) | +6.95 (39) |
Florida is playing with an adjusted tempo of 70.3 possessions per 40 minutes, just 0.1 possessions fewer than the last update. The Gators ended November with one of the faster-paced offenses in the country, but have settled into the 50-60 range of those rankings.
Florida’s luck rating continues to improve with each SEC win, but the Gators remain one of the unluckiest Power Four teams in the country, ranked No. 337 out of 365. KenPom’s luck rating is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and its expected record using the correlated Gaussian method.
If the math stuff is confusing, ignore it. The gist is that a positive number is worse than a negative number. High luck can result in a lower rating than a record suggests, and negative luck often means underperformance.
Strength of Schedule according to KenPom
Florida’s strength of schedule remains one of the toughest in the country, despite dropping from 3rd to 4th in the rankings. Further broken down, Florida’s opponents score 117.4 points per 100 possessions, the fourth-most in the country, and allow 105.2 points, which is good for eighth overall. Florida’s non-conference SOS rating is plus-6.95 (39th).
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida Gators basketball KenPom rating after LSU win
