Coming off what was arguably the best half of basketball by an FSU team since Scottie Barnes maintained a Tallahassee address, first year head coach Luke Loucks has Florida State (12-13, 5-7) rolling as they take on the Boston College Eagles (9-16, 2-10). Just a few weeks ago, Loucks candidly told the media room that the team’s goal was to be one of the 15 teams that qualify for the ACC Tournament. Now, the Seminoles sit just a half game out of 9th place in the league, giving them a chance to make a serious run at a first round bye. (Of course, teams may be better off finishing 10th than the 8/9 slot if Duke does the expected and earns the 1 seed, but that’s a conversation for another article.) Meanwhile, it’s BC’s turn to be the team that is just trying to do anything they can to scratch together enough league wins to earn a playing slot at the Spectrum Center three weeks from today.

Florida State has a 15-10 all-time series lead over the Eagles, but it was last year’s last minute collapse in Chestnut Hill that fully set the wheels in motion for the end of the Leonard Hamilton era. Can FSU avoid stubbing their toe against the worst team they have faced since mid-December?

Florida State Seminoles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: How to watch, stream, odds

Date

• Tuesday, February 17th

Time

• 6:00 p.m. ET

Watch/Stream

• Channel: ACC Network

Listen

• Seminoles Radio Network
• FSU Broadcast: Ch. 371/SXM App

Spread

• -12.5, Florida State

Over/Under

148.5

Why Can FSU Win?

• For the first time in conference play, the ‘Noles are clearly the better team on paper. For the season, Florida State is 79th on KenPom and 74th on Bart Torvik, compared to 150 and 143 respectively for BC. But it’s really the past month where Loucks’ team has put it together. When I previewed the Notre Dame game on February 7th, I noted that over it’s last 6 games FSU was 54th on Torvik. Fast forward 10 days and now the Seminoles are 27th over their last 6 games. Going back one calendar month, Florida State ranks 34th in the country and 5th best in the ACC, meaning that for a full month now, Loucks has his team playing at an NCAA Tournament level. Boston College, on the other hand, comes in on a 6 game losing streak with 4 of those 6 losses coming at home, and their best player, Donald Hand, Jr., is set to miss his second straight game with an injury.
• The two primary areas teams were bullying FSU earlier in the season were three point shooting and offensive rebounding. Boston College isn’t great at either. The Eagles rank 270th in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing just 28.1% of their misses, and are even worse from beyond the arc, making 29.7% of their shots for a 341st ranking. FSU has been a pretty poor three point shooting team in their own right, especially at home where the ‘Noles have made just 31.3% of their perimeter shots. But Florida State’s defensive rebounding has made noticeable improvements over the last month, despite having a size disadvantage against most of their opponents. FSU has held 7 of their last 8 opponents under 35% offensive rebounding rate, so you’d like to think the Seminoles could keep a BC team that has just one player over 6’9 off the offensive glass.
• Lajae Jones has become a straight up menace. Early in the season he seemed content to just float on the perimeter and hope he had a hot night from deep. But after being personally challenged by Loucks mid-season, the senior has turned into FSU’s best two-way player. Jones has scored in double figures in 5 of the last 6 games, with many of those points coming at the free throw line thanks to his newfound aggression toward the basket. He’s also been a monster on the boards, grabbing 7+ rebounds in 7 of the last 9 games, including three different games with 10+. Oh and he’s added 15 “stocks” (blocks and steals) in the last 13 games too.

Why Can Notre Dame Win?

• While BC shoots poorly from three as a team, they do have two guys who can get hot on occasion. Fred Payne is just a 32% shooter on the season, but he’s had 4 games in league play where he’s hit 3 or more threes. Luka Toews attempts far fewer shots than Payne, but he makes them at a 45% clip and went 4-4 against Notre Dame a few weeks ago. FSU has been susceptible to allowing a single shooter get white hot and beat them from deep, most recently getting torched by Jacari White in a brutal late game collapse to UVA.
• Florida State has thrived in recent weeks as the underdog. Now the ‘Noles are getting heaps of positive press and come into this one as double-digit favorites. That’s a very different type of mentality to have. To be clear, FSU bludgeoned quite a few low-majors as significant favorites earlier this season. But while BC is bad, they aren’t Mississippi Valley State bad. The Eagles beat Syracuse and Pitt in early January and led UVA and ND for much of the game in recent close losses. If FSU doesn’t play with the same kind of intensity and effort on defense that has become their hallmark over the last 30 days, this game could quickly turn into a dog fight against an opponent desperate to end a losing skid.