These days, genuine surprises in MMA are relatively rare. At least to the magnitude of Tuesday’s announced clash between legendary pioneers, Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano.
There have always been links to the potential superfight since Rousey’s heyday, when she reigned atop the UFC women’s bantamweight division as champion from 2013-15, yet nothing ever came to fruition. But now Rousey vs. Carano is officially set for a 145-pound blockbuster on May 16 in Los Angeles’ Intuit Dome, and it won’t even be held in the UFC — or as a much-speculated boxing match. Instead, MMA is making its debut on Netflix, promoted by Jake Paul and Nakisa Bidarian’s Most Valuable Promotions.
Folks, curveballs in sports don’t get much bigger than this. Let’s take a look at the biggest winners and losers from this potentially groundbreaking news.
WINNERS
Any MMA fighter on the card
First things first: Like it or not, Netflix has done nothing but big business with its combat sports events since getting involved in late 2024 — from Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul, to Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3, to Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Terrence Crawford and Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua. Rousey vs. Carano certainly fits more with the Paul bills in the freak-show aspect, but it nonetheless carries equal drawing capabilities to any of those big boxing bouts. Why this matters, though, is because this isMMA, our precious bloodsport that has been turned into monopolized, watered-down crowd service in 2026.
Options are more needed than ever in today’s MMA, and the timing couldn’t be any more pivotal from a fighter’s perspective. UFC’s $7.7 billion Paramount deal has delivered changes in the form of bonus increases, but the promotion’s athlete contracts remain laughable by modern, elite-level sporting standards.
It remains to be seen whether this May 16 card will be exclusively MMA, though the fact that promotional materials have displayed a cage helps bolster the notion that it will be — a wise choice, considering how confusing mixed combat events can be for casual viewers. And if it is, purely from an exposure and payout perspective, every available non-UFC fighter should hope to be a part of the spectacle.
Even if Rousey vs. Carano is a one-off, it provides a shake-up. A new possibility.
And regarding specific names who could benefit, obviously, Holly Holm is the standout, having recently signed with MVP and owning a rather infamous history with Rousey.
Jake Paul
Making a superfight like Rousey vs. Carano happen, whether in MMA or boxing, was always going to be big business for whoever hosted it. The immediate reactions across social media have already indicated as much. But Jake Paul and MVP decided to throw a wrench into expectations, like only they could, booking this one under MMA rules. It’s funny to say MMA wasn’t the likely expectation for a Rousey vs. Carano fantasy bout, but remember, these two haven’t fought since 2016 and 2009, respectively.
Nonetheless, there is a stark difference between Paul the boxer and Paul the promoter.
“The Problem Child” has done his damnedest to treat female fighters equal to their male counterparts, going as far as supporting bottom-of-the-totem-pole UFC fighters and delivering some of the biggest stages for women’s combat in history. The latter had only come in boxing, though — until now. His dreams as an MMA competitor for the PFL may have been dashed in recent months, but focusing on the sport like this only further shows Paul isn’t afraid to take unexpected chances that have, so far, paid off.
Netflix
If you haven’t already, it might be time to start taking Netflix seriously as a main player in combat sports.
The streaming giant’s foray into MMA carries an underlying competitive tone for a reason we’ll get to in our losers’ bracket. Paramount clearly went all-in on the UFC and all things TKO, so much so that even Zuffa Boxing is airing on the streaming platform. Obviously the same doesn’t apply yet for Netflix and/or its MVP partners, however their consistency has been there when it matters. Netflix and MVP are bringing the world massive fights on-paper — some more high-stakes than others, but all that garner intrigue from any type of audience. And that’s the brilliance of their moves in this new-ish, still-developing era.
Again, it circles back to an earlier point — options and competition are the best things for the sport. Rising tides lift all boats.
LOSERS
UFC
Rousey appeared on “SportsCenter” earlier Tuesday afternoon to talk about the big news. In the interview, the UFC Hall of Famer revealed that she first approached UFC CEO Dana White about the Carano matchup to gauge his interest. “It didn’t exactly work out,” Rousey said.
Considering the current state of affairs within the UFC, and its desperate need for intrigue of any kind — along with the cavernous financial pockets the promotion now maintains — there should’ve been no plausible, legitimate reason for this not to work out. If the excuse is that a fight between two legends is too much of a gimmick, then look no further than 2024’s Sphere event or the biggest of them all: The upcoming UFC White House card — an event which absolutely could have used a fight like this.
The only UFC title fight currently booked in 2026 is for a gimmick title, too — the BMF championship.
Paramount’s launch event in January was admittedly a solid start to the year, but right now there’s nothing to look forward to in terms of UFC putting forth exciting efforts despite holding MMA in a stranglehold. Ideally, a competitive push from the likes of MVP and Netflix could change that. For now, the UFC entirely chose to let Rousey vs. Carano get away and create a new adversary.
PFL
The PFL has a great roster and is arguably the No. 2 promotion in MMA — for whatever that’s worth, considering the vast gap between it and the UFC. But with the news of a fight like Rousey vs. Carano breaking, MMA’s secondary “co-leader” has been immediately outshined by something far more compelling to the general audience than anything the PFL has ever done.
To make matters worse, PFL’s structure has changed drastically in recent years. Tournaments are gone and million-dollar paydays are a thing of the past. Some of their fighters — Francis Ngannou — also seem to be on the outs, openly expressing interest in fighting elsewhere. If you want to talk about a perfect bargaining chip to magnetize interest, well, it’s just been presented. Fairly or unfairly, Tuesday’s news cycle will only further diminish the PFL’s product in what could be its most important year yet.
Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano
OK, listen. These two are about to make wicked bank and draw eyeballs aplenty from around the globe. That’s all a major win, and they should be commended for that.
For this entry, though, we’re using some foresight.
The hard truth? This fight is going to be awful and do no favors to either.
I’ve already mentioned how long it’s been since both last fought. Realistically, that should be all you need to know, as Rousey will be 39 years old and Carano, 44, on fight night.
But thanks to the endless passage of time, it’s also easy to forget how either woman’s last fights ended. Carano suffered her lone career loss in a one-round beating at the hands of Cris Cyborg, coincidentally setting the stage for Rousey’s rise in Strikeforce. Similarly, Rousey’s two career losses also spelled the end of her own MMA run — she lost her title via head kick to Holly Holm before being trounced in 48 seconds by Amanda Nunes, then bailed from the sport in a huff. In recent interviews over the past year, Rousey also did herself no favors, speaking out about her problematic concussion history.
To top things off, the fight will take place at 145 pounds, making it the first time Rousey has competed that heavy since her Strikeforce days in her fourth pro fight. That’s not to say one woman is in for a rougher night than the other, but to expect an instant classic out of this matchup is pure delusion.
Sadly, this fight screams Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz 3 more than not. If you know, you know.
