The defending American Conference tournament champion Memphis basketball team will be a long shot to repeat.

In fact, the Tigers (12-18, 7-10) aren’t even assured of making the 10-team field yet. It all comes down to the final day of the regular season, as Penny Hardaway’s team is currently in 10th place in the league standings (out of 13 teams).

Memphis is set to face Tulane (17-13, 8-9) on March 8 (1 p.m. CT, ESPN+) at Devlin Fieldhouse in New Orleans. This is the first season in the history of the American Conference that there is a cut. League officials altered the format to reward regular-season success while also strengthening the tournament field.

UTSA is the only team already eliminated from conference tournament contention.

Nine teams — South Florida (the No. 1 seed), Tulsa, Wichita State, UAB, FAU, Charlotte, North Texas, Tulane and Temple — already have clinched tournament berths. That leaves Memphis, Rice and East Carolina eligible for the final spot.

Here are the possible scenarios in play for Hardaway’s Tigers.

How Memphis basketball can reach the American Conference tournament

There are multiple scenarios still in play that would result in the Tigers scoring the final spot in the field.

• A Memphis win over Tulane would get Hardaway’s team in, regardless of the outcomes of Rice’s game (against UTSA) and ECU’s game (against UAB). If Temple loses to Tulsa, a victory against Tulane would mean Memphis secures the No. 8 seed.
• If the Tigers lose to the Green Wave, they can still advance to the tournament if East Carolina falls at UAB, and the outcome of Rice’s game against UTSA would have no bearing on whether Memphis gets into the tournament. If Temple loses to Tulsa, the Tigers would be the No. 9 seed. If Temple beats Tulsa, Memphis would be the No. 10 seed.

How Memphis basketball can be left out of the American Conference tournament field

There is only one way the Tigers’ season ends without an American tournament appearance.

• If Memphis loses to Tulane and ECU knocks off UAB, then the Pirates will stay in Birmingham while the Tigers’ offseason starts earlier than anyone expected. If that happens, Memphis and ECU would have identical 7-11 conference records, but the Pirates own the tiebreaker after beating the Tigers head-to-head on March 1. If Memphis loses, ECU wins and Rice wins, it would create a three-way tie for 10th, and the Pirates would hold the tiebreaker in that scenario as well.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com, follow him @munzly on X.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What must happen for Memphis basketball make American Conference Tournament