With players around the country in college football officially declaring for the NFL Draft over the last week, the quiet speculation on Dante Moore‘s pending decision has increasingly gotten louder.
He answered a question on the topic this week, stating that there wasn’t a decision yet on what he will do, and that he didn’t know.
A number of college and NFL analysts have shared their opinions, with Mel Kiper Jr. consistently including Moore on his 2026 Big Board, ranking him as the No. 1 prospect in the class. Of course, the Oregon Ducks‘ quarterback is just a redshirt sophomore who will be making just his 18th career start when the Ducks face off against the James Madison Dukes on Saturday in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
There are two choices for Moore: return to Oregon for another year or turn pro and declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, where he’s being projected as a top-five pick. It’s a simple decision in that there are only two options, but the long-term effects of both choices could be crucial as far as his development.
Longtime draft analyst Todd McShay, who’s seen many quarterback prospects in his nearly 20 years on the job, brought some history to the table while speaking on his podcast, The McShay Show.
“History has shown us that the failure rate for guys who have 17 starts, fewer than 20 starts, is significant enough to make a mature young man who is getting paid Phil Knight money say, ‘you know what? Yes, I’ll lose out on getting one year closer to the second contract. … But what if I don’t get to that second contract in the NFL as a good starting quarterback in the league?”
McShay then mentioned quarterbacks such as Mitchell Trubisky, Mark Sanchez, and Anthony Richardson who didn’t make it to a big second contract. The common denominator was that they all had logged fewer than 20 starts in college, with all three starting just one full season — a pattern similar to Moore’s, who started five games as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023 before one season with the Ducks.
The pushback that McShay then acknowledged is the quarterback talent level of the 2027 class, which could potentially feature Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, Texas’ Arch Manning, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, USC’s Jayden Maiava, and current transfer portal passers in Sam Leavitt and DJ Lagway.
In 2026, it very well could be just Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson (though he also has a decision to make after just one season as the Crimson Tide’s starter) and Moore. The lessened competition at the top of the draft would certainly benefit Moore, as well as the risk of a drop in his draft stock or injury if he decides to come back to school.
In the same breathe, McShay noted that Moore’s “not in a rush,” but that he had a very close relationship with offensive coordinator Will Stein, who was hired away as the Kentucky Wildcats head coach — something that could factor into Moore’s decision.
Putting a stamp on the conversation, McShay stated his opinion on what decision he thinks will benefit Moore in the long run.
“Go back to school for another year,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s trends, analysis and experience in this profession, and I promise you. … While you can leave now and can go on and have an unbelievably successful career, the odds of you having that unbelievably successful career that you want to have in the NFL increase if you go back to school next year. I promise you.”
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Todd McShay cautions Oregon QB Dante Moore on leaving school early
