How crucial is this weekend for the Carolina Panthers and their playoff hopes? Well, we can probably say that those hopes will be on life support if the game doesn’t roll their way.

Sunday’s NFC South showdown between the host Panthers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers carries immense postseason implications. Both have entered Week 16 tied atop the division at 7-7, meaning one team can exit holding a huge one-game lead with only two contests left to play.

Given how deep the NFC’s crop of contenders is, with the lowest current seed sitting at 9-4-1, a wild-card berth is extremely unlikely for either. So, it’s essentially an NFC South title or bust in both Carolina and Tampa.

Now, what would a victory mean for the Panthers?

According to The Athletic‘s 2025 NFL Playoff Simulator, their playoff probability would rise from 22 percent to 42 percent with a win. From there, they could clinch the division crown in Week 17 a win over the Seattle Seahawks and a Tampa Bay loss to the Miami Dolphins.

(They can also, regardless of the Week 17 outcomes, defeat the Bucs again in Week 18 to take the NFC South.)

But, if Carolina losses at home on Sunday, the simulator has their probability cliff-diving into just a four-percent chance.

For all intents and purposes, the playoffs start now for the Panthers.

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This article originally appeared on Panthers Wire: How Week 16’s game vs. Bucs can affect Panthers’ playoff probability