Michigan vs. UConn odds, lines, predictions for 2026 college basketball national championship game originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Will the Huskies win three out of four?
Or will the Wolverines finally break the Big Ten national championship drought?
No. 1 Michigan will play No. 2 UConn in the finale of the 2026 NCAA Basketball Tournament on Monday. The national championship game is at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET, and the game will be televised on CBS.
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UConn (34-5) has a chance to win its third national championship in four seasons under coach Dan Hurley. The Huskies beat No. 3 Illinois in 71-62 in the first national semifinal Saturday. Braylon Mullins — who hit the game-winning shot against No. 1 Duke in the Elite Eight – scored 15 points in the victory against the Illini. He hit a game-sealing 3-pointer late against Illinois.
Michigan (36-3) will attempt to become the first Big Ten team to win a national championship since the 2000 tournament. The Wolverines beat No. 1 Arizona 91-73 on Saturday, but All-American guard Yaxel Lendeborg is dealing with an MCL sprain and ankle injury. Second-year coach Dusty May has the program in position for its first national title since 1989.
Who has the edge in the national championship game? Here is a closer look at the odds, the players to watch and our final prediction. We are 48-14 S/U and 33-29 ATS heading into the championship game.
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Michigan vs. UConn odds
- Moneyline: Michigan -320, UConn +250
- Spread: Michigan -7
- Over/under: 144.5
Michigan vs. UConn all-time series
The Wolverines and Huskies have only met three times, and this is their first NCAA Tournament matchup. UConn leads the all-time series 2-1 and won the last meeting 74-60 on Nov. 25, 2015.
Michigan’s key players against UConn
Lendeborg (15.2) is Michigan’s leading scorer, but there are other options. He made two three-pointers in the second half against Arizona, but how much will those knee and ankle injuries impact his mobility against the Huskies? He averages 19 points per game in the tournament.
Aday Mara (11.8 ppg.), a 7-foot-3 center, continued a dominant NCAA Tournament with 26 points, nine rebounds and two blocks against the Wildcats. He teams with Morez Johnson (13.2 ppg.), another efficient scorer in the paint.
Elliot Cadeau (10.2 ppg.) had a rough shooting night against Arizona, but he also had 10 assists. Nimari Burnett (8.4 ppg.) is an effective catch-and-shoot option, and Trey McKenney (9.8 ppg.) is yet an explosive scorer off the bench. McKenney had 16 points against Arizona in the semifinal.
NBA SCOUTING REPORTS: Yaxel Lendeborg | Braylon Mullins | Alex Karaban
UConn’s key players against Michigan
Tarris Reed Jr. – a 6-foot-10, 260-pound forward – has been a dominant post presence in the tournament. The senior averages 20.8 points and 13 rebounds in five games.
Alex Karaban – a senior with a chance to win a third national championship – had an off night shooting in the semifinal. He is shooting 2 of 13 from 3-point range in UConn’s last two games, but he can re-heat quickly. Mullins is 5 of 12 from 3-point range in the last two games. If Karaban and Mullins are on target at the same time, then it could be trouble.
Silas Demery Jr. had nine points, seven assists and seven assists against Illinois, and Solo Ball had 13 points. The Huskies do not have a deep bench, but Jayden Ross, Jaylin Stewart and Malachi Ross will see minutes. UConn flirted with foul trouble a few times in the tournament.
If free throws are a factor late, Karaban is 13 of 13 (100%) and Mullins is 9 of 9 (100%) in the tournament.
DECOURCY: Dan Hurley’s magic touch has Huskies on the brink again
Michigan vs. UConn prediction
Lendeborg’s injury will be the focus through Monday. He returned against Arizona, but his mobility clearly was an issue. How much will an extra day of rest help? Remember, Lendeborg is one of Michigan’s best defenders. Will he be limited to being a 3-pointer shooter who keeps the Wolverines’ other scoring options open?
The UConn offense revolves around Reed. He is shooting 60.9% from the floor in the tournament. He also hit 5 of 5 from the free-throw line against the Illini. Reed opens up high actions on pick-and-rolls and has to be accounted for at all times in the paint. The Huskies will try to pull Mara out of the paint, and Johnson also will be matched up against Reed.
Will the Huskies shoot that well from 3-point range again? UConn had only five games with 12 or more 3-pointers entering Saturday’s game. Mullins and Karaban will take their shots, and Howard and Alabama each made 14 3-pointers against Michigan in the tournament.
If Michigan shoots the 3-pointer like it did against Arizona, then it will be trouble for the Huskies. The Wolverines were 12 of 27 from 3-point range, and five different players hit at least one.
How do Demery and Ball factor in on the perimeter? Can they force more turnovers against Cadeau, who has been a fantastic facilitator of Michigan’s offense. The Huskies have a tournament-proven defense. UConn limited Michigan State (33.9%) and Illinois (38.8%) to less than 40% shooting. The Illini shot 6 of 26 (23.1%) from 3-point range.
UConn is 5-1 S/U against Big Ten schools in the tournament under Hurley with five straight victories. The Huskies can frustrate an offense, but this is not an ordinary offense. Michigan is 4-2 S/U when limited to 72 points or less, and that would be the Huskies best hope to score one more upset. Michigan simply is playing at a championship level, and that will show through Monday.
Final score: Michigan 81, UConn 72
