Rep. Eric Swalwell’s California gubernatorial campaign—and career in Congress—appear to be over after the Democratic lawmaker suspended his campaign and announced his resignation following a spate of disturbing sexual assault allegations from multiple women and former aides.
Given that Swalwell had been the front-runner in the contest, his exit from the race upends what has so far been a messy affair, with more than a half-dozen Democrats vying for the chance to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Until now, the big fear in Democratic circles was that the party could blow the race entirely, as the crowded primary field risked locking Democrats out of the general election altogether. That’s because California has a jungle primary, in which all candidates regardless of party ID run on the same ballot. And with the Democratic vote getting cut in so many different ways, two Republicans could have advanced to the general.
But with Swalwell out, the odds of a Democratic lockout have dropped—especially given that President Donald Trump endorsed one of the two GOP candidates, former Fox News host Steve Hilton, likely consolidating the Republican vote behind his chosen nominee.
The biggest question that remains now is which Democratic candidate stands to benefit from Swalwell’s exit.
Polls before Swalwell’s scandal showed that billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer and former Rep. Katie Porter were neck-in-neck to be the second-place Democrat in the race.
Steyer, for his part, has the advantage of money. And given that California is the largest state in the country, as well as one of the most expensive to run a statewide campaign thanks to its vast size and expensive media markets, that is not a factor to discount.
Steyer has already given $121 million to his campaign, $90 million of which he spent on television advertising. That could absolutely boost him to victory in the June 2 primary.
Porter is more of a known name in California politics, having represented an Orange County-based House seat for three terms, and running a statewide race for Senate in 2024—which she ultimately lost in the primary to now-Sen. Adam Schiff.
However, she has struggled to raise money this time around, taking in roughly $6 million in donations from July through December, according to the BallotBook. While that sounds like a lot, it’s a pittance in California, where television ads cost a fortune in expensive media markets like Los Angeles and San Francisco.
What’s more, Porter has her own baggage. Early on in her gubernatorial bid, she was exposed as a nasty boss who berated employees in her congressional office. She also showed her temper in an interview with a local television reporter, threatening to end an on-camera interview over a dumb yet otherwise benign question.
Something to watch is what the many congressional Democrats who had endorsed Swalwell’s campaign will do now. Do they coalesce behind one of the Democratic candidates in the race, helping build momentum for that person? Do they splinter, watering down their impact? Or do they sit out altogether?
Meanwhile, a poll also circulated after the Swalwell scandal broke asking if voters would be open to former Vice President Kamala Harris running a write-in gubernatorial campaign. There’s no sign that Harris herself was behind the survey, nor that she would embark on a difficult write-in campaign. But it’s something people are talking about.
Ultimately, a lot can happen in the seven weeks between now and the primary. But Steyer’s money gives him an advantage that makes him a difficult candidate to beat.
